By Will Atwater

In 2018, Hurricane Florence stalled over North Carolina, dumping heavy rain that shattered records across the eastern part of the state. In some areas near the coast, Florence dropped more than 30 inches of rain over several days, and preliminary reports showed totals as high as 35.93 inches in parts of the region. 

These rainfall amounts contributed to catastrophic flooding as rivers and creeks quickly overwhelmed their banks.

In New Bern, emergency officials said, hundreds of residents had to be rescued from homes, attics and rooftops as neighborhoods were inundated. One report said more than 360 people were rescued after water surged into residential areas.

Nearly eight years later, the Environmental Protection Agency and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are poised to revise the definition of Waters of the United States. Environmental advocates warn the proposed changes could leave thousands of acres of wetlands — like the ones surrounding New Bern — open to development. Those wetlands provide natural flood protections, and paving over them could pave the way for more severe flooding from future storms and rising seas.

In 2023 the Supreme Court ruled in Sackett v. EPA that only wetlands with a continuous surface connection to traditionally navigable waters qualify for federal protection under the Clean Water Act. In the 5 to 4 decision, the court narrowed the scope of federal jurisdiction, leaving as muchas 91 percent of the nation’s nontidal wetlands without federal protection and thus open to development.

The decision prompted the EPA and the Army Corps to draft a revised definition of what constitutes the waters of the U.S., also referred to as WOTUS. A new rule is expected soon.

The stakes of that shift are highlighted in a recent study by UNC Chapel Hill scientists, whose research suggests that the loss of federal protections for millions of acres of wetlands could amplify the impacts of sea-level rise for coastal communities. The study draws on projections from N.C.’s 2020 Climate Science Report, which indicate that cities like New Bern could experience about half a foot of sea-level rise by 2040 and potentially several feet by the end of the century.

That level of flooding could affect infrastructure crucial to maintaining health, such as hospitals and sewage and water treatment plants. 

Sea-level rise and coastal communities

Home to more than 31,000 residents, the City of New Bern is about 100 miles northeast of Wilmington at the confluence of the Neuse and Trent rivers in eastern North Carolina. Though it lies inland, its elevation averages between 10 and 20 feet above sea level. The town’s connection to tidal waters makes sea level rise an increasingly urgent concern that shapes how the city plans for flooding, land use and long-term resilience.

“Protecting wetlands and connected waters is one of the most effective ways to reduce flood risk and strengthen community resilience, while also providing long-term economic and environmental value,” said Chris Brown, executive director of SmarterSafer.org, a coalition that advocates for environmentally responsible and fiscally sound disaster policy.

If wetlands are submerged or prevented from migrating inland, researchers warn that communities could lose a vital source of natural flood protection, water filtration and storm buffering.

The town’s vulnerability is underscored by UNC researchers, who warn that rising seas, combined with land-use constraints, could reduce the wetlands that buffer New Bern from storm surge and heavy rainfall. As those natural defenses shrink, the city could become increasingly exposed to flooding.

Front-line preparation

Critical institutions in New Bern are already preparing for flooding and extreme weather. At CarolinaEast Medical Center, the city’s primary hospital, emergency preparedness is closely tied to the city’s flood and land-use planning.

“Part of our emergency operations plan is preparing for external flooding and storm-related incidents,” said Danny Hill, the medical center’s emergency management director. “We are very susceptible to wind-driven water from the river coming up through drainage ditches and creeks that run through the wetlands. The more sea level rises and the wetlands stay full, the more spillover you have.”

Hill said the hospital has been evaluating engineering controls, including portable dams and diking materials, to protect its facilities during major storms.  

As a native New Bern resident, Hill said that day to day, sea level rise isn’t noticeable. But during major storms and wind-driven rain events, flooding has increased in areas that were not previously affected. Hill added that it’s difficult to say whether those changes are due to sea level rise or to increased development that has changed how water moves through the landscape.

Maintaining access to potable water

About two and a half hours southwest of New Bern, similar infrastructure hardening has taken place at UNC Health Southeastern in Lumberton, where officials have focused on protecting access to clean water and improving drainage around the facility.

After Hurricane Matthew struck in 2016, the medical center upgraded an existing well and added a reverse osmosis filtration system to ensure that it would have access to potable water during emergencies, said Karen Kay, the center’s interim manager of design and construction.

The medical center’s staff also noticed that there increasingly was standing water after rain events, said Lori Dove, the medical center’s senior vice president and chief operating officer.

“We were seeing that our wetlands and the areas that feed into the river [that] drainage had become a problem with all the building, all the construction around it. Those drainage lines were backing up and causing flooding into the neighborhoods and subsequently over to us.” 

Dove added, “Our city has done a good job of getting [the drainage pipes] cleaned out and moving.”

While hospitals and emergency managers focus on preparing for floods after storms hit, designers say communities can reduce future risks by rethinking how coastal landscapes are planned and built.

Flood mitigation strategies

Founded in 2013, the Coastal Dynamics Design Lab at N.C. State University was created to address a gap in how design was being used in disaster recovery, particularly in shaping the built environment, said co-founder and director Andy Fox. The lab brings designers, scientists and local communities together to develop solutions that help coastal areas rebuild in ways that are more resilient, sustainable and visually appealing.

In response to estimates by some analysts that as many as 82 million acres of nontidal wetlands could face development pressure once the EPA revises the definition of the Waters of the United States, Fox noted that tensions in the U.S. have long existed between private property rights and what best serves the public good.

“As designers, our training prepares us to be highly iterative and generative,” Fox said. “We can quickly work through scenarios and then use the visualizations and the metrics that come out of that to have a well-informed community conversation about what might be next, what might be best, and what the local priorities are. We test [ideas] in a way that begins to address the complexity of those situations.”

One flood mitigation tool that Fox and Anne Maragaret H. Smiley, the study’s lead researcher and a postdoctoral scholar at UNC Chapel Hill’s Institute for the Environment, highlight is greenways. 

Fox argues that greenways and similar amenities are essential because, when added to river and wetland projects, they multiply the impact of public investment by improving flood-prone landscapes, expanding public access to natural areas, and strengthening community health and social connection.

But even as designers and scientists point to the benefits of wetlands and green infrastructure, Smiley said those systems often struggle to gain public support because their value is not always visible in everyday life.

“Wetlands have a PR problem,” she said. “They provide tremendous value that I think people are just unaware of.”

‘The first line of defense’

NC Health News emailed the City of New Bern’s stormwater superintendent with questions about the study and was informed, “there is no one who can answer your questions honestly and accurately at this time.”

Meanwhile, the UNC study found that wetlands around New Bern currently provide about $90,000 a year in nitrogen removal, with conservation areas delivering more than half of that value despite covering 13 percent (about 3,400 acres) of the city’s land. But with a projected sea level rise of 3 feet or more by the end of the century, more than 60 percent of wetlands in protected areas could be lost, cutting the city’s overall benefits by more than half. 

The researchers also found that urban development often blocks wetlands from expanding inland, though some corridors for future wetland growth and migration still exist and could be preserved through smarter land-use planning.

“The first line of defense is really conserving what we have, the assets that already exist,” Smiley said.

“The second is developing a little more strategically, so that we can preserve connectivity between coastal and inland wetlands and create opportunities for them to migrate landward,” Smiley said. “The third line of defense would be some engineered system, like a constructed wetland or stormwater pond.”

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